During a 1977 World Series game between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers, the blustery sports broadcaster of that era, Howard Cosell, remarked that the “Bronx is Burning,” and he wasn’t being figurative. During the televised broadcast, an ABC aerial camera panned away a few blocks from the stadium where the roof and top floors of a nearby vacant building were ablaze. Today, it’s the rental market in the Bronx that is on fire as NYC residents are getting priced out of Manhattan and Brooklyn. Rents in the Mott Haven section have grown by nearly 31% since May 2019 currently at $2,950, according to StreetEasy. In addition, online traffic for Bronx rental listings in June 2023 ranked the highest for any location in the Northeast, increasing nearly 50% from last year, according to the apartment search company, RentCafé. To be fair, much of the new supply is along the Harlem River in the Mott Haven neighborhood where developers are pouring money into new buildings. The most notable projects are from Brookfield Properties and RXR, the former building seven (7) high-rise towers collectively referred to as the Bankside project, which will include nearly 1,400 luxury apartments, five (5) retail spaces and a public park along the river with a price tag of approximately $950 million give or take a few shekels. A bit more modest but not too shabby is the 27-story 200-unit RXR project.
What’s driving the development and renter demand in the Bronx? A few things in fact. First, the apartment inventory in Manhattan, Queens, and Brooklyn has been declining in 2023 leaving few options and, for most, a decision between the Bronx and the so-called Forgotten Borough is no decision at all (apologies to my brothers and sisters in Staten Island). Second, the median Manhattan and Brooklyn rents continue to smash records hitting $4,395 and $3,400, respectively, and there was no solace across the Hudson River either as the rents in Jersey City saw double-digit percentage hikes. Lastly, these new projects in Mott Haven benefit from coveted waterfront views and short commutes to Manhattan, and this duo is what people want (or more honestly, demand, if leaving preferable boroughs like Manhattan or Brooklyn). It turns out, however, that there are only a few concentrated pockets in the Bronx that are seeing rent growth. In addition to Mott Haven, it is neighborhoods with easy access to transit, such as University Heights, Pelham Parkway, Concourse, and Fordham.
A larger issue at play as well that should not be overlooked and undoubtedly another reason for rental increases across the city, including the Bronx, is the massive drop off in rental projects coming online across the city. With the sunsetting of the 421-a program in June 2023, rental projects no longer pencil for developers so they simply aren’t getting built and with an increase in housing demand, including nearly 80,000 migrants, NYC is simply running out of apartments. Thank your legislators in Albany and let’s not forget that these mistakes have long-lasting shelf lives as any “righting” of the ship has a three-year tail before newly completed construction projects come online.
Are we witnessing a rebirth or resurrection of the Bronx and is it sustainable? Probably not, every few years, the Bronx receives favorable media coverage only to fizzle out and largely be forgotten again by Manhattanites and Brooklynites so is this time different? Hard to say, but these projects by Brookfield and RXR are meaningful financial commitments, at least in one of the most desirable neighborhoods within the borough, and that’s a start. Though average rents in the Bronx may not be sustainable at current levels if Brooklyn and Manhattan rent cool over time as those boroughs are preferred by young professionals and hip artsy folks…at least for now. So maybe this piece should be retitled to something along the lines of Mott Haven Catches Fire While Much of Bronx Remains Lukewarm. Not as catchy though.
Eastland, M. (2023, July 17). This Bronx neighborhood is one of NYC’s hottest apartment markets. WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-bronx-neighborhood-is-one-of-nycs-hottest-apartment-markets-27180870?mod=hp_featst_pos3
Thank you Josh, well said, but with the crime the way it is everywhere and the Bronx always championing in this fields, it is not only the prices in the Bronx that are the determining factor, but the fear to get there, that holds people back and until the crime issue is resolved, I think the Bronx will still continue being the lame duck.